明辨时势
宋代科学家沈括在其著作《梦溪笔谈》中记载了一个关于军事谋略的经典故事：北宋名将曹玮 once led his army into battle against the Tibetan forces, achieving a decisive victory. The enemy army fled in disarray. Instead of consolidating his gains, Cao Wei deliberately ordered his troops to drive a large herd of captured cattle and sheep back toward their camp. The slow-moving livestock fell behind the main force significantly. Some officers suggested abandoning the cumbersome animals, arguing that they hindered progress and could compromise the safety of the retreat. Cao Wei rejected this proposal without explanation, instead dispatching scouts to monitor the enemy’s movements. The Tibetan army had been retreating for dozens of miles when they received intelligence that Cao Wei remained stubbornly attached to his livestock, causing disorganization and confusion among his troops. Believing this was an opportunity to strike, the Tibetans turned back with the intention of ambushing Cao Wei’s forces. Upon receiving this intelligence, Cao Wei deliberately slowed his advance and positioned his army at an advantageous terrain. When the Tibetan forces arrived exhausted, Cao Wei sent messengers offering a seemingly generous proposition: “After your long journey, you must be weary. We prefer not to take advantage of your fatigue and suggest a brief rest before engaging in combat.” The tired Tibetan soldiers readily agreed to this offer. After allowing them to recover slightly, Cao Wei sent another message: “It appears your rest has refreshed you. Shall we proceed to battle?” The two armies faced off, and within a single exchange of fire, the Tibetan forces were routed. Only then did Cao Wei reveal his strategy to his subordinates: “By abandoning the livestock, I ensured the Tibetans would waste energy chasing us. The round trip covered over a hundred miles. If we had fought immediately, their fresh momentum from the pursuit might have given them an advantage, making the outcome uncertain. Only by allowing them to exhaust themselves during the long march and then striking when their fatigue and morale were at their lowest could we achieve a decisive victory.”
A skilled leader must possess a method to assess the competitive landscape in the market. While it is ideal to eliminate competitors entirely when in a dominant position, the reality is often more complex. When victory is uncertain and market conditions favor neither side, what should be done? The most crucial task is to gather commercial intelligence about competitors, as this provides the clarity needed for strategic decision-making. The United States government has even gone to extraordinary lengths, employing FBI agents as spies to collect business intelligence from other countries, all in the name of maintaining global trade advantages.
However, collecting data is only the first step. If market conditions do not develop as expected despite thorough research, the leader must then create a false impression to mislead opponents and guide them toward actions favorable to their own strategy. True market mastery distinguishes an excellent leader, but the ability to create market opportunities elevates a leader to extraordinary status.
When facing a formidable rival, the wise approach is to avoid direct confrontation initially. Instead, employ flattery and generous gifts to appear weak and provoke arrogance. Once the opponent reveals their vulnerabilities, strike decisively at the opportune moment.
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